Wednesday, October 5, 2011

Fallacy of Positive Instances



Have you ever read your horoscope in the newspaper and said, “That is SO me! How do they do it?”  If you read that exact horoscope to a group of people of all different zodiacs, chances are most of them would believe that was their horoscope too.  How about conspiracy theories?  Are you easily swayed or unsure of what people claim to be the truth?

Why is that?

Let’s take a closer look at a zodiac description.  If you follow this link, http://www.gotohoroscope.com/leo-meanings.html you’ll find the description of the Leo zodiac.  Even if you’re not a Leo, you might find it applies to you.  Its says that Leos take revenge or “strike back quickly…” But later is says, “They also forgive easily and never hold a grudge” (Leo).  Additionally, the Leo is described as “ambitious” but also “lazy” (Leo).  You can tell that these descriptions cover both ends of the spectrum so people tend to accept the information that relates to them and forget the rest.

This can be explained by fallacy of positive instances.  People tend to remember the things they want to remember to formulate their own beliefs.  In this situation, people only pick out the information that matches their personality and forget about the rest.  Which brings us to conspiracy theories.

Have you ever been convinced of a conspiracy theory?

One of the most controversial conspiracy theories is the United States government being involved with the September 11th attacks.  There are theories that bombs destroyed the twin towers, not planes, flight 93 was a staged crash, and the hijackers are still alive (Aleshinloye). 

Even with evidence against these allegations, people still strongly believe them to be true.  Some of the people who have bought into these claims do so just because they accept information that confirms previous opinions and ignore the rest of the information given to them.  If people have prior opinions that are negative towards the government, or even the president at the time, George W. Bush, then they are more likely to just accept ideas that endorse this opinion and block out other evidence.  Once again, this is referred to as fallacy of positive instances.

Similarly, the moon landing conspiracy theory confirms this phenomenon.  People believe that the moon landing was all staged in a studio because the flag appears to wave in a non-existent breeze, no stars are visible in the dark sky, and lighting and shadows seem to be strange (Than).  Of course, there are scientific explanations for all of these assertions but once an idea is planted in someone’s mind, evidence supporting it is taken in and accepted. 

Have your parents ever complained that you only hear what you want to hear?  They are correct; you only really pay attention to the information that is agreeable with past experiences and beliefs, also called “positive instances.”

References:
Aleshinloye, S. (1 Sept. 2011). The 11 most compelling 9/11 conspiracy theories.  Retrieved from http://newsone.com/newsone-original/samalesh/the-11-most-compelling-911-conspiracy-theories/
Leo zodiacal characteristics. (n.d.).  Retrieved from http://www.gotohoroscope .com/leo-meanings.html
Than, K. (16 July 2009).  8 moon-landing hoax myths—busted.  Retrieved from http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/07/photogalleries/apollo-moon-landing-hoax-pictures/#/flag-waving-moon-landing_9803_600x450. jpg

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